COP 26 | 2021 Glasgow UNFCCC Conference of the Parties

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Image @UNFCCC Twitter posted 2021-10-14

Tabs below connect you to resources that are relevant for understanding the COP26 UN Climate Summit held in Glasgow from November 1 - 12, 2021.

Glasgow Climate Pact

Excerpts from the CarbonBrief analysis of November 15, 2021:

The surprise package at COP26 was the adoption of a “Glasgow Climate Pact”, an unprecedented, lengthy and wide-ranging political decision towards a more ambitious climate response.

This text “requests” that countries “revisit and strengthen” their climate pledges by the end of 2022, calls for a “phasedown” of coal and sets up processes towards delivering a global goal on adaptation, higher levels of climate finance and finance for loss and damage.

Although the text left many disappointed over a lack of “balance” between the strength of language and action on emissions cuts, relative to finance or loss and damage, the fact that it was agreed at all is a relative novelty for the COP process.

...there is a marked shift in the language – and specitivity – that countries were collectively willing to sign off in Glasgow, compared with earlier summits.

The Glasgow text puts the IPCC’s findings front and centre, under the first subheading “science and urgency”. It “recognises” that the impacts of climate change will be “much lower” at 1.5C compared with 2C and “resolves to pursue efforts” to stay under the lower limit.

This puts a slightly stronger emphasis on 1.5C, with the Paris text itself having only said countries would “pursu[e] efforts” to stay below that rise in global temperature.

The pact then reiterates the IPCC special report finding that limiting warming to 1.5C requires “rapid, deep and sustained” emissions cuts, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions falling to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 and to net-zero around mid-century.

20. Reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels; 21. Recognizes that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C and resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C; 22. Recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid century, as well as deep reductions in other greenhouse gases; 23. Also recognizes that this requires accelerated action in this critical decade, on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge and equity, reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty;

(Note paragraph 22 refers to the 1.5C limit in general, whereas an earlier draft of the text had talked of staying below that level “by 2100”, implying potential temperature “overshoot”. Some climate scientists had expressed concern about this draft wording.)

The pact “welcomes” the latest IPCC report and “expresses alarm and utmost concern” at warming having already reached 1.1C, with remaining carbon budgets now “small and being rapidly depleted”.

It “notes with serious concern” that current pledges will see emissions increase by 2030 and starts a work programme on faster cuts “in this critical decade”, with a report due at COP27 next year.

It also starts an annual ministerial meeting on “pre-2030 ambition”, with the first at COP27.

The pact then “requests” that countries “revisit and strengthen” their targets by the end of 2022 “as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal…taking into account different national circumstances”.

This language mirrors the wording in the Paris decision text, which “request[ed]” countries improve their pledges by 2020. It also gives a nod to those developing countries that wanted to emphasise the need for rich nations – or major emitters – to take the lead.

Despite some initial confusion, the “request” to ratchet ambition in 2022 is also stronger wording than in earlier drafts, which had merely “urge[d]” parties to step up next year.

Throughout COP26, many parties and observers called for this tightening of “ambition”. Ultimately, this “request” is likely to be ignored by some countries in 2022, in the same way that around 40 countries failed to offer new or updated NDCs before COP26. Nevertheless, the wording sets a clear expectation that all countries will raise their game next year, with intense diplomatic pressure likely to fall on those that refuse to play ball.

Again, this goes beyond what was agreed in Paris, where countries were only expected to update their pledges every five years – with an option to do so at any time. The rationale for this is clear. The next round of NDCs are due to cover the period from 2031 onwards, yet a yawning gap remains between current pledges to 2030 and the 1.5C limit.

The pact’s new request to revisit and strengthen 2030 targets next year therefore offers a narrow window through which the 1.5C limit could be kept within reach.

In addition, the Glasgow pact “urges” those that have yet to update their NDCs to do so “as soon as possible” and requests the UN climate body to publish annual updates to its synthesis report, on the combined climate impact of countries’ NDCs.

Similarly, it “urges” those that have not yet submitted long-term strategies to the UN to do so before COP27 “towards just transitions to net-zero emissions by or around mid-century”.

cop curve 1995 to 2021 web "COP Curve" Chart: Adapted by CO2.Earth from a carboncredits.com graphic.

COP26 Outcomes

CarbonBrief 2021 Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Glasgow

COP26 Primer

Guardian What is COP26 and why does it matter? A complete guide