2022 Mauna Loa Eruption and Interruption of Leading CO2 Signal

 2022 12 04 header fissure 3 mauna loa eruption usgs 1440

 

By Michael McGee

Published: December 4, 2022.  

Last updated: April 24, 2023

 

Introduction

The Mauna Loa volcano erupted November 27, 2022.  About seven hours later, lava flows buried the access road and cut electrical powerlines to the remote, world-famous Mauna Loa Observatory. 

 

This global atmosphere monitoring facility is best known for producing the longest running record of high-precision measurements of CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere.  This incident caused a pause in CO2 measurement programs at Mauna Loa: the NOAA CO2 monitoring program (NOAA GML), and the Scripps CO2 monitoring program (Scripps / UCSD). 

 

The eruption lasted about two weeks.  Volcanic activity began to settle down on December 9, 2022, and lava flows stopped expanding by December 13, 2022.  The USGS reported that lava flows travelled 12.1 miles and covered an area of 16.5 square miles.

 

To continue the Mauna Loa CO2 record, temporary measurement site was set up at the nearby summit of Maunakea.  NOAA began its Maunakea measurements on December 8, 2022.  Scripps began its measurements at this temporary site on December 14, 2022.  The two monitoring programs will continue the Maunakea measurements for about a year after measurements resume at the Mauna Loa facility.  This will provide an overlap which will allow scientists to compare measurements at the two nearby locations.  

 

On March 9, 2023, Scripps resumed its measurements of CO2 levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory.  As of April 24, 2023, it is not yet known when NOAA will resume its CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa.

This page

A more detailed account of events is next.  Then, links to external reports and coverage is listed in chronological order. 

 

Detailed Story & Comment

Since March 1958, scientists have been using high-precision instruments to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) in Hawaii.  Located 3,400 metres above sea level, this atmospheric research facility is home to the world's longest-running instrument record for CO2 measurements.  This CO2 record generated the Keeling Curve which is now "an icon of modern climate science" (ACS). It resulted in discoveries that advanced human understanding of our impact on the atmosphere, climate and environment--and our capacity to address the impacts.  

Mauna Loa is also the world's erupted on November 27, 2022 at 11:30 p.m.  At about 6:30 p.m. the next day, lava flows cut through powerlines on the Observatory Road access route which supplies electricity to the nearby Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO).  This is the remote, premiere atmospheric monitoring observatory which scientists have been using to monitor and collect data for understanding changes to the planet's atmosphere and climate since the 1950s.  

This webpage presents a summary and many links to informaiton the 2022 volcanic eruption at Mauna Loa which interrupted the atmospheric CO2 record which serves as the leading signal of coming changes in climates and environments worldwide, and which, we hope, will soon straighten and bend down to become a signal that shows past and coming progess to resolve the current crisis. 

Scientific instruments at the facility includes analyzers operated independently by Scripps and NOAA to continuously measure concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) as they change in the atmosphere.  The loss of access and electricity at MLO has forced a pause in the collection of the longest-running record of atmospheric CO2 measurements which the late Charles David Keeling of Scripps began in March 1958.  As the operator of the facility, NOAA posted the following notice on the morning of November 29, 2022, that all data collection at MLO has paused. 

 

NOAA notice regarding November 29, 2022, pause in data collection at the Mauna Loa Observatory after lava cut through power lines

 

The 2022 eruption marks the second disruption of the Mauna Loa CO2 record due to volcanic activity. The first volcanic disruption ocurred in 1984 when lava disconnected power to the observatory and came within 5 miles of Hilo.  By December 10, 2022, lava expansion paused without reaching the Inouye Highway (Sadddle Road) which sits between the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes, and which connects the city of Hilo and the town of Kona.

NOAA and Scripps scientists are working to resume measurements at Mauna Loa.   On December 16, 2022, BIVN reported that NOAA reached an emergency agreement with the University of Hawaii.  This is an agreement to set up a temporary site for NOAA and Scripps to continue their atmospheric measurements at the summit of Maunakea where the University operates its 88" telescope (UH88). 

 

“The data gathered over many decades in Hawai‘i are essential to our understanding of climate change,” said Steve Thur, NOAA assistant administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. “We are always grateful for the strong partnership with the University of Hawai‘i, but especially now when we need a way to ensure continuity in the measurement of CO2. Being able to pull atmospheric samples from Maunakea while MLO is down ensures that any disruption to this important long-term research will be minimal.”  (BIVN)

 

On December 16, 2022, the University of Hawaii (UH) entered a partnership with NOAA to establish a temporary site for collecting samples of CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.  UH is making available its astronomy research facility which housesn a large, 88 inch telescope at the summit of Maunakea.  NOAA has installed scientific instruments so NOAA and Scripps can each continue the measurement of CO2 at intervals which were happening before the eruption forced a pause in measurements at the Mauna Loa facility in late 2022.   

Commentary:

Sixty four years ago, Charles David Keeling initiated CO2 measurements at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory.  The resulting record has given humankind a solid evidentiary foundation for understanding the global circulation of carbon and how the continous addition of excess carbon dioxide changes climates, ecosystems and human well-being.  It is fortunate that the interruption at the Mauna Loa site was contained to a few months, with measurements made during that time nearby at Maunakea.

The Mauna Loa CO2 record is at an extraordinary point in its history.  With the attention and interest that is being generated, this is an opportune moment to start to anticipate what the Keeling Curve--the CO2 trend--can become.  It is a time to start connecting climate-stabilizing plans and actions which return the atmosphere to levels that are stable and sustainable for countless generations.  It is time to start to look to the Keeling Curve as the signal which can straighten, bend, flatten and start its return to 350 parts per million, the level scientists have identified as a key, overarching marker of safety for the sustainability of Civilization as a whole.  

Sadly, for the moment, the trend continues to accelerate upward.  But it is neither too late nor too early to start thinking about the CO2 record, trend and signal in fresh and useful ways.   It is time to start looking at this leading global indicator as the main target for plans and actions.  It is time to see it as a malleable curve which we have inadvertently fueled in the wrong direction, and as a curve we can tame into the Curve so many of us want by scaling up our focus, attention, planning and action. It is a signal that essentially comes from the Earth itself without institutional filters or delays, a curve that can change its curve and reveal environmental improvements will come soon. 

 

ERUPTION STORY--REVERSE CHRONOLOGY 

April 24 2023

CO2.Earth has learned that both Scripps and NOAA continue to measure CO2 levels at the temporary site on the summit of Maunakea. Both CO2 monitoring programs will collect data at Mauna Loa and Maunakea to make a one year overlap in the CO2 readings.  As reported previously, Scripps resumed its measurements at the Mauna Loa facility on March 9, 2023.  NOAA continues to measure and report CO2 readings from Maunakea, and its date for resuming measurements at its Mauna Loa facitity is not yet known. 

March 9 2023

The Scripps CO2 program reported on March 16, 2023, that it resumed measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory on March 9, 2023: "The CO2 analyzer is being powered with a solar power/battery system installed by NOAA staff at the Mauna Loa Observatory using helicopter access.  The resumption ends the gap in measurements which began on Nov. 28 when the lava flow from the eruption of Mauna Loa buried the road and cut the power line to the station."

This screenshot made on April 17, 2023 is taken from The Keeling Curve landing page of the UCSD website.  The CO2 plot distinguishes the daily CO2 readings by location of the air samples:  Mauna Loa Observatory versus the Maunakea summit.  It also shows the gap in CO2 readings in early December 2022. 

 

Scripps 1 Year CO2 Record posted April 17, 2023

 

March 5 2023

 

March 2 2023

USGS. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Weekly Update: Mauna Loa Volcano

 

February 25 2023

CBC LISTEN Quirks & Quarks (9 minutes) What scientists do when a volcano upsets their climate record

 

February 6 2023

 

January 16 2023

 

January 10 2023

 

January 6 2023

 

January 5 2023

UNDRR  When volcanoe roar: Protecting the public & tracking long term climate impacts

 

Dec 26 2022

 

Dec 22 2022

NOAA posted its first atmospheric CO2 readings made at the temporary Maunakea facility, 21 miles north of the Mauna Loa Observatory.   Readings posted by NOAA on December 22, 2022 are listed here:

2022-12-08:  418.93
2022-12-09:  419.52
2022-12-10:  418.68
2022-12-11:  418.47
2022-12-12:  418.96
2022-12-13:  419.24
2022-12-14:  418.62
2022-12-15:  418.75
2022-12-16:  418.78
2022-12-17:  418.43
2022-12-18:  417.98
2022-12-19:  417.98
2022-12-20:  420.37
2022-12-21:  419.23

 

Dec 18 2022

 

 

Dec 16 2022

 

 

 

Dec 15 2022

 

On December 15, 2022, the USGS "Volcano Updates" webpage advised that the eruption of Mauna Loa had stopped.  Excerpts of the USGS notice shown below.  For access to the original information after the USGS overwrites the notifications page, open this pdf by CO2.Earth. 

Mauna Loa is no longer erupting.   

 

As of 7:00 a.m. today, December 15, webcams only captured residual incandescence and no lava movement in the F3 vent. The channels below the vent appear drained of lava and no longer feed the main flow front. 

 

The inactive main flow front remains stalled about 1.7 mi (2.8 km) from the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road) when last measured on the morning of December 10.  The inactive main flow front still glows at a few spots at night and may inch northward very slowly as it continues to settle. 

 

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates are at background levels

 

....

 

Tremor (a signal associated with subsurface fluid movement) is no longer detectable; summit and Northeast Rift Zone inflation is slowing.   

 

The significance of the continuing inflation while the flow field is inactive is not yet clear; it is common for eruptions to wax and wane or pause completely...

 

There is no active lava within Moku'āweoweo caldera nor in either rift zone. Satellite imagery shows the entire 2022 flow field cooling and no longer active. 

 

Dec 14 2022

 

Dec 13 2022

Dec 12 2022

 

Dec 11 2022

 

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa that began the evening of November 27, 2022, continues at greatly reduced levels as of December 11, 2022 (fourteenth full day). Only incandescence was observed within fissure 3 overnight. The channels below the vent appear drained of lava and no longer feed the main flow front. For this reason, the total area covered by lava is unchanged since yesterday.

 

USGS Volcano Updates (Dec 11 2022):

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa may still be active.  Incandescence is restricted to the  cone that formed around the fissure 3 vent, there was no observable activity anywhere on the rest of the flow field overnight.  

As of 7:00 a.m. today, December 11, the M8 webcam shows very little incandescence and no lava movement in the F3 vent. The channels below the vent appear drained of lava and no longer feed the main flow front. 

The inactive main flow front has stagnated about 1.7 mi (2.8 km) from the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road) when last measured yesterday morning, December 10.  The inactive main flow front still glows at a few spots at night and may inch northward very slowly as it continues to settle. 

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates continue to be reduced; on December 9, the emission rate was approximately 20,000 tonnes per day (t/d). The Hawaii Interagency Vog Information Dashboard has detailed information about vog: https://vog.ivhhn.org/. Forecasts for the dispersion of vog can be found on the VMAP Vog Forecast Dashboard: http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/new/. 

Tremor (a signal associated with subsurface fluid movement) is no longer detectable; summit and Northeast Rift Zone inflation started on December 7 and is continuing.   

The significance of the continuing inflation while the flow field is inactive is not yet clear; it is common for eruptions to wax and wane or pause completely, but none of the eight recorded eruptions from Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone returned to high eruption rates after those rates decreased significantly. Nevertheless, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to closely monitor the current activity. 

There is no active lava within Moku'āweoweo caldera nor in either rift zone. Satellite imagery shows the entire 2022 flow field cooling and no longer active. 

 

 Dec 10 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa that began the evening of November 27, 2022, continues at reduced levels as of December 10, 2022 (thirteenth full day). One active fissure, fissure 3, is feeding a pāhoehoe lava flow that remains confined to the existing lava channel from earlier in the eruption. 

 

Dec 9 2022

The total area covered is less than reported in previous days due to refined mapping efforts. 

 

Dec 8 2022

Mauna Loa's Northeast Rift Zone eruption continues. There is a visible gas plume from the erupting fissure fountains and lava flows.

 

Dec 7 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa that began the evening of November 27, 2022, continues as of December 7, 2022 (tenth full day). One active fissure, fissure 3, is feeding a lava flow downslope to the north.... Lava flow expansion over the past 24 hours is shown in red and amounts to 0.38 square miles (179 acres).  

 

Dec 6 2022

Lava flow expansion over the past 24 hours is shown in red and amounts to 0.14 square miles (90 acres).  

 

Dec 5 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its eigth full day. One active fissure, fissure 3, is feeding a lava flow downslope to the north.

 

Dec 4 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its seventh full day. One active fissure, fissure 3, is feeding a lava flow downslope to the north. 

 

Dec 3 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its sixth full day. One active fissure, fissure 3, is feeding a lava flow downslope to the north.

 

Dec 2 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its fifth full day. Fissure 3 is generating lava flows primarily to the north; fissure 4 continues to be active, but with very little eruptive activity observed this morning.

 

Dec 1 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its fourth full day. At this time two fissures are active, sending lava flows primarily to the north-northeast. 

 

Nov 30 2022

A helicopter overflight on November 30, 2022, allowed for aerial visual and thermal imagery to be collected of the Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa. Two active fissures on the Northeast Rift Zone are feeding lava flows to the north, northeast, and southeast. 

 

Nov 29 2022

The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa has continued into its second full day. At this time two fissures are active, sending lava flows in multiple directions. Overnight satellite views allowed USGS analysts to accurately map some of the most active flows...

 

“The observatory will eventually come back, but it’s going to take a long time before it’s really back to normal,” Keeling said. “There’ll be a gap, and it’s too bad. It’s a really fantastic and important long-term record.” [San Diego Union-Tribune: Nov 29 2022]

 

Nov 28 2022

An eruption of Mauna Loa volcano started at 11:30 p.m. on Sunday, November 27, 2022. Initial fissures covered the floor of Moku‘āweoweo caldera with new lava, but this area was mostly inactive by the time HVO field crews arrived after sunrise on Monday morning. Other fissures spilled lava to the southwest of the summit region, but this area was also inactive by that time. HVO field crews observed active lava flowing to the north of the upper Northeast Rift Zone, in the direction of the access road to the NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory, but not reaching it. 

 

Nov 27 2022

Mauna Loa volcano began erupting in Moku‘āweoweo Caldera on November 27, 2022, at approximately 11:30 p.m.

 

EXTERNAL INFORMATION SOURCES

 

Summaries:

Webcams:

 

GENERAL INFORMATION:  Mauna Loa

Multimedia

Mauna Loa Observatory

 

 

PAST ERUPTIONS

 

The following is an excerpt from the Keeling Curve / UCSD article of November 29 2022, by Bob Monroe at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography:

In the history of the Keeling Curve, there are occasional times in which readings are not available because of excessive variability in hourly readings. There were sustained periods without measurements in 1964 when budget cuts within the federal agencies supporting the record suspended operations for several months and in 1984 when another Mauna Loa eruption cut off power. There were no readings from March 26 to April 29 that year, after which a generator was brought to the observatory to resume operations.

 

March 2021 Analysis: 

 

1843 - 2018

 

MEASURING CO2 AT A VOLCANO