Climate Scoreboard | Global Temperature Projection

Source Graphic  Climate Interactive

 

 

Year 2100 Projections

ClimateInteractive.org | Based on climate action pledges of UN member countries


Scenario / Data
Temperature
Rise (2100)
Atmospheric
Concentrations (2100)
Annual CO2e
Emissions
(2100)
Confirmed Proposals
As of March 1, 2011
4.0°C

800 ppm CO2   1060 ppm CO2e

103.40 Gt

INDCs Strict
As of December 14, 2015
3.5°C

670 ppm CO2   855 ppm CO2e

81.33 Gt

2°C Pathway
As of October 27, 2015
2.0°C

475 ppm CO2   485 ppm CO2e

6.01 Gt

1.8°C Pathway
As of December 14, 2015
1.8°C
450 ppm CO2   455 ppm CO2e
2.93 Gt
1.5°C Pathway
As of December 14, 2015
1.5°C
425 ppm CO2   420 ppm CO2e
0.92 Gt
2014 'Actuals'
0.9°C
397 ppm CO2   481 ppm CO2e*
54.96 Gt

Publication Source  Climate Interactive Scoreboard

ppm = parts per million  |  Gt =  gigatonnes = 1 billion tonnes
* NOAA-ESRL

 

 

November 16, 2016

Climate Interactive and MIT analyzed Paris pledges and mid-Century strategies of different countries.  The pledges themselves are not capable of limiting global temperature increases well below 2° Celsius.  However, they identified 600 pathways that can.

CI  Mid-Century strategy analysis |web

CI  Mid-Century strategy analysis |.pdf

CI  North American Press Release |.pdf

 

December 14, 2015 

Climate Interactive analyzed the latest nationally-determined contributions to global cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions.  Assuming the contributions are made in full, atmospheric CO2 is projected to reach about 670 parts per million (ppm) and global average temperature increase is projected to reach about 3.5° Celsius above pre-indutrial levels.

Climate Interactive did not post underlying data for its analysis when the above graphic was updated on December 11.  However, prior analyses show a continual rise in global greenhouse gas emissions throughout the 21st Century until 2100 when projections stop.  That is, the projections do not indicate stabilization of global emissions, atmospheric greenhouses gases or global temperature.

 

Data (Climate Interactive Projections)

 

CI  Climate projections 2015-1214 |.xlxs spreadsheet

CI  Climate projections 2015-1027 |.xlxs spreadsheet

CI  Climate projections 2015-1017 |.xlxs spreadsheet  .pdf analysis

CI  Climate projections 2015-0927 |.xlxs spreadsheet

 

Related

 

CO2.Earth  COP 21 | 2015 Paris Climate Talks  (with CI projections)

UNFCCC  INDCs by Country

CI  FAQs

Climate Action Tracker  Current INDC pledges and global temperature

 

 

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