Carbon in the Ocean
The atmosphere is not the only reservoir for civilization's emissions of carbon. This page brings the oceans into the picture. Over longer time scales, most of the carbn emitted today will end up in the ocean.
Ocean Acidification: Explained in 60 seconds
Source WXhift | climate indicators: ocean acidification [web + youtube]
Hawaii CO2 in the Atmosphere and Ocean
Source NOAA PMEL graphic [web + jpeg] | data: mauna loa observatory + station aloha
Ocean Perspective on the Global Carbon Cycle
The "airborne fraction" tells us that most of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere stay in the atmosphere for a long time. But the atmosphere is a small reservoire for carbon. About 16 times more carbon is stored on land ("terrestrial biosphere"). And about 60 times more carbon is stored in the ocean (in pre-industrial times before the drastic increases in atmospheric emissions). The ocean takes the most carbon, but the rate of carbon uptake is slower. The trend we see today in the ocean will long outlast the trend we see in the atmosphere.
At present, just a quarter of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere are absorbed by the oceans. CO2 in the air reacts with seawater and forms carbonic acid that acidifies the ocean. As acidification increases, pH falls. Since pre-industrial times, the average pH of ocean surface water fell from 8.21 to 8.10. As a logarithmic scale, this change equates to a 30 percent increase in acidity. At the current rate, pH could decrease another 0.3 pH units. This would make the ocean more acidic than any time in the past 100 million years. This is a dangerous trends because it is more difficult for shellfish to live, as well as plankton at the base of the ocean food web.
Some takeaways
What does this mean? It means there are many earth systems that interact over relatively short and long time scales that affect and sustain life in the biosphere. There is a need to think about global environmental change with the aim of returning stability to the system as a whole. Approaches like geoengineering can provide temporary relief to undesirable effects of some changes--like warming temperatures on the earth's surface. But larger issues remain to be seen and addressed.
References
WOR The oceans: The world's largest CO2 reservoir
WXshift Climate indicators: Ocean acidification
Seawater Data
U of Hawaii HOT Station ALOHA surface ocean CO2 data (since 1988)
NOAA-NCEI Ocean climate laboratory
NOAA-NCEI World Ocean Database (WOD)
NOAA-ESRL About the world ocean database
NOAA PMEL Ocean acidification observations & data
Links for Deeper Exploration
Student Earthlabs
SERC Ocean acidification: Too much of a good thing?
SERC A. The carbon cycle and ocean pH. What's the connection?
SERC B. Ocean acidification: A risky shell game?
Ocean carbon cycle
NOAA PMEL Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem
NOAA PMEL A primer on pH
NOAA PMEL What is ocean acidification?
IGBP 2012 Ocean in a high CO2 world
NOAA PMEL Science and environmental education for understanding and stewardship
NOAA PMEL Ocean acidification educational tools
NOAA PMEL Sampling educational tools
NOAA PMEL Carbon educational tools
NOAA PMEL ANIMATIONS: OA and aragonite saturation state
NOAA PMEL Carbon cycles in coastal oceans
NOAA PMEL OA Links
2015 Media
WXshift Three research tools to unravel mystery of ocean acidity
2013 Video
TEDx TESC Busch | Ocean Acidification in Washington State
Support
Financial PayDayAllDay.Com
Film
Niijii Films About | A Sea Change: Imagine a World Without Fish
Bullfrog Films A Sea Change: Imagine a World Without Fish
CO2 Monitoring
CO2.Earth mainly features CO2 data from measurements made by two scientific institutions at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) on the Big Island of Hawaii USA: the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO). This is the site of the world's longest, continuous CO2 record of direct atmospheric measurements using high-precision instruments. The location is near the middle of the world's largest ocean, and near the top of the world's tallest mountain, from its base (McGee, 2017, p. 99). The Mauna Loa Observatory may be considered one of the best locations on earth for making these measurements. NOAA notes the following locational advantages:
"The undisturbed air, remote location, and minimal influence of vegetation and human activity at MLO are ideal for monitoring constituents in the atmosphere that can cause climate change."
Planetary Significance of the MLO Trend
At present, atmospheric CO2 is rising twice as fast as it was in the 1960s. You can see the difference in data from the Mauna Loa Observatory. But the rate of change is essentially the same at every CO2 monitoring station. In the book CO2 Rising, author Tyler Volk writes:
"Data from Alaska and Samoa fit right in with the trend from Mauna Loa and the South Pole, where monitoring was begun nearly 20 years earlier. We are witnessing a global phenomenon. CO2 is rising everywhere, and at about the same rate."
~ Tyler Volk (2008, pp. 40-41)
For stations at different latitudes, you will find differences in amplitude—much smaller near the South Pole and much larger near the North Pole.
Mauna Loa Links
Scripps Keeling Curve & lesson for long term earth observations
NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record
See the "MLO" tab for more links about the Mauna Loa Observatory and other earth monitoring stations.
References
McGee, M. (2017). Learning for Planetary Habitability: A Lived Experience Study With Senior Earth System Scientists. (Master's thesis). Royal Roads University, Victoria, Canada. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11160.90882.
Volk, T. (2008). CO₂ rising: The world's greatest environmental challenge (2010 paperback ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [MIT Press]
Scripps CO2 Monitoring at MLO
Charles David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography started high-precision CO2 measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory in March 1958. He directed the Scripps CO2 program, including CO2 monitoring at MLO, until he died in 2005. Keeling's son. Ralph F. Keeling. is now the senior scientist and principal investigator who oversees the Scripps CO2 monitoring program, as well as the the Scripps O2 Program that measures atmospheric oxygen and argon. Both programs are based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego (UCSD) in La Jolla, California.
Links
Scripps CO2 UCSD Home page
Scripps CO2 UCSD Keeling Curve website
Scripps CO2 UCSD Twitter (@Keeling_curve)
Scripps CO2 UCSD CO2 Data at MLO and other stations
NOAA CO2 Monitoring at MLO
Starting May 1974, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). started a second, indepement CO2 monitoring program at the Mauna Loa Observatory. NOAA datasets for Mauna Loa CO2 that start in 1958 incorproate Scripps CO2 data from March 1958 to April 1974. NOAA now monitors observatory facilities at Mauna Loa. Pieter Tans is the senior scientist and principal investigator who oversees the NOAA CO2 monitoring program.
Links
NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory webcam (facing west)
NOAA More webcams at MLO
Calculation of CO2 Mean Values
Monthly and weekly mean CO2 concentrations are determined from daily averages for the number of CO2 molecules in every one million molecules of dried air (water vapor removed). Annual mean CO2 concentrations are the arithmetic mean of the monthly averages for the year.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expressed as parts per million (ppm). This is a shortened and common abbreviation for parts per million by volume (ppmv) as opposed to mass. The UAR Center for Science Education provides a helpful illustration of carbon dioxide concentrations in parts per million.
NOAA NOAA-ESRL calculation of global means
NOAA How CO2 levels are measured at Mauna Loa
Time Zones of Mauna Loa Data
Scripps CO2 data is based on local time in Hawaii, USA, where the observatory is located. NOAA CO2 data is based on local time in Boulder, Colorado, USA, from where scientists coordinate the activites of its global monitoring network.
Preliminary Publication of Data
Data published within the past year should be considered preliminary and subject to change by scientists based on recalibrations of reference gas mixtures or other quality control procedures. Adjustments may be made to earlier years for the same reasons. In the past, changes have been minor.
NOAA started publishing change log and notes in 2008 that provides a record of adjustments and reasons for them.
Mauna Loa Observatory
Mauna Loa Data & The Keeling Curve
NOAA MLO Monitoring & Research Programs
NOAA MLO Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
NOAA How CO2 levels are measured at Mauna Loa
Scripps CO2 Keeling Curve Lessons
U of Hawai'i Press BOOK | Hawaii's MLO: 50 Years of Monitoring the Atmosphere
CO2.Earth Data sources used at CO2.Earth
San Diego UT Keelings' CO2 measurements as global warming's longest yardstick
CDIAC Atmospheric CO2 from continuous air samples at MLO, Hawaii
Mauna Loa Visits & Photos
NOAA Tour information for the general public
NOAA MLO photo gallery
Nebraska Weather Photos A visit to the Mauna Loa Observatory, 2008
Worldview of Global Warming CO2 reaches 400 ppm (2011 photos)
Trip Advisor Mauna Loa Observatory (Things to do in Hilo, Hawaii)
xClimate Science Data Sources
CO2Now.org republishes scientific data. The site makes important climate data and trends more visible. CO2Now is not a primary source for data.
CO2Now features data for the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The main data source is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Earth Systems Research Laboratory in the United States, or NOAA / ESRL. This is one of two institutions that measure atmospheric CO2 levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography also has a CO2 monitoring program at the Mauna Loa Observatory. Scripps started the world's first high-precision monitoring program at the Mauna Loa Observatory.
Climate science data is made available by scientific institutions and journals around the world. If you are looking for a particular data set, an excellent starting point is the catalogue of data sources at RealClimate.org. RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists.
The CO2Now Climate Sheet
UnpublishedData current as of January 19, 2014
Climate Sheet posts the world’s most current and important planetary data and targets – together in one place from leading global sources. The CO2Now Climate Sheet enumerates the chain of causes that are driving humanity’s largest environmental crises – global warming, climate change and ocean acidification. It also sets out key scientific markers for a stable climate system.
0 tonnes |
Global CO2 emissions for long-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 “Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 and climate requires thatnet CO2 emissions approach zero” ~ J Hansen et al. Source 1: J Hansen et al via NASA | Target Atmospheric CO2 | 2008 |
0 w/m 2 watts per square meter |
Global energy balance & the end of global warming x “Stabilizing climate requires, to first order, that we restore Earth’s energy balance. ~ Dr. James Hansen Source: J Hansen | Conversation with Bill McKibben | 2010 |
0.58 W/m2 (± 0.15) |
Global energy imbalance from humanity's GHG emissions | 2005 - 2010 Source: NASA | Earth's Energy Budget Remained Out of Balance | 2012 Also: Hansen et al. | Earth's Energy Balance and Implications | 2011 "A new NASA study underscores the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity — not changes in solar activity — are the primary force driving global warming. The study offers an updated calculation of the Earth's energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth's surface and the amount returned to space as heat. The researchers' calculations show that, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010, the planet continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space." |
1.91 ppm per year parts per million |
Atmospheric CO2 | Average Annual Rise | 1994 - 2003 December Data Only |
2.09 ppm per year parts per million |
Atmospheric CO2 | Average Annual Rise | 2004 - 2013 December Data Only The rate of increase for this past decade is higher than any decade since the start of the atmospheric CO2 instrument record in March 1958. More Info: CO2Now | Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2 |
8.07 pH |
Ocean Acidification: Average pH of Surface Oceans | 2005 Average pH of surface oceans has declined about 0.1 units since before the industrial revolution. This is an increase of about 30% in the concentration of hydrogen ions which is a considerable acidification of the oceans. “…world leaders should take account of the impact of CO2 on ocean chemistry, ~ The Royal Society (2005) Source 1: The Royal Society | Ocean acidification due to atmospheric CO2 | 2005 |
12.9°C |
100-Year Average Global Surface Temperature for November| 1901 - 2000 |
13.68°C |
Average Global Surface Temperature* | November 2013 Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html#anomalies More Info: |
172 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | Lowest level in 2.1 million years Source: Science | Atmospheric CO2 Across the Mid-Pleistocene | 2009 |
195 countries |
Signatories to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The United Nation’s ultimate climate objective “is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.” (See UNFCCC Article 2 and UNFCCC media releases) More Info: 350.org | 112 Countries for 350 ppm / 1.5 °C Note: In the event that other countries (or the UNFCCC as a whole) adopts a quantified atmospheric stabilization target for CO2 or any other greenhouse gases, it will be posted in The CO2Now Climate Sheet. |
280 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | Pre-Industrial Revolution Atmospheric CO2 was stable at about 280 ppm for almost 10,000 years until 1750. |
300 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | Highest level in at least 2.1 million years (pre-industrial) Circa 1912, atmospheric CO2 levels breached the 300 ppm threshold for the first time in at least 2.1 million years. |
350 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | Upper Safety Limit “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that… If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” ~ J Hansen et al Source 1: Open Atmospheric Science | Target Atmospheric CO2 | 2008 |
391.01 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | October 2012 | Mauna Loa Observatory Data dated November 8, 2013 at NOAA-ESRL. CO2Now links to source datasets | Atmospheric CO2 data from NOAA & Scripps |
396.81 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | December 2013 | Mauna Loa Observatory Preliminary data released Data dated January 9, 2014 at NOAA-ESRL. CO2Now links to source datasets | Atmospheric CO2 data from NOAA & Scripps |
885 ppm |
Atmospheric CO2 | Median Projection for Year 2100 This projection is made in C-ROADS, a scientifically reviewed climate simulator. The analysis accounts for the voluntary emissions reductions pledges of parties to the UNFCCC. This CO2 level represents a global temperature increase of about 4.5 °C. Source: Climate Interactive Analysis as of April 2013 |
36 billion metric tonnes |
Humanity's Global CO2 Emissions (including land use) | 2012 2011 global CO2 emissions are the highest in human history. They are 54% higher than in 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Global fossil fuel emissions made up 91% of the total. The Global Carbon Project (GCP) posted data for 2011 on November 19, 2013. Source: Nature Geoscience & GCP | See "Global Carbon Emissions" at CO2Now |
The CO2Now Climate Sheet
Get "The Sheet" by Email: Subscribe to @mospheric Post
More Info: About The CO2Now Climate Sheet
Email Us: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Mauna Loa CO2
Unpublished- Throughout this website, references to average or mean CO2 levels for any month or year since March 1958 means data collected by continuous atmospheric monitoring at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, USA. At Mauna Loa, the remote location, undisturbed air, and minimal influences of human activity and vegetation are ideal for monitoring consituents in the atmosphere that can cause climate change.
- The Mauna Loa Observatory is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Global Monitoring Division (GMD) in the USA. The continuous, high-precision measurement of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was started in March 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory by Charles David Keeling.
- The monthly CO2 reading is the most current and comprehensive indicator of how well we are doing, collectively, to address the root causes of global warming and climate change.
CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere, so observations of concentrations from a single site like the Mauna Loa Observatory are an adequate indicator of world trends for atmospheric CO2.
Mauna Loa Observatory
The M
Links:
CO2 Acceleration | CO2Now.org
Mauna Loa Science and Wonder | CO2Now.org
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii | NOAA / ESRL
Monthly CO2 Data Since March 1958 | NOAA / ESRL | Scripps Data
About the Mauna Loa data | NOAA)
Why Mauna Loa data is important | NOAA
Atmospheric CO2 from continuous air samples at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii | CDIAC 1958 - 2001)
Keelings' CO2 measurements as global warming's longest yardstick | San Diego UT
Global Carbon Emissions
In November 2021, the Global Carbon Project published its Global Carbon Budget 2021 which concluded:
-
The global average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increased from about 277 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to 414 ppm in 2020 (up 49%)
-
In 2020, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were 34.8 GtCO2, a decrease of 5.4% from 36.7 GtCO2 in 2019.
-
For 2021, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to grow 4.9% to 36.4 GtCO2, a level which is about 0.8% below the 2019 level. (The 2021 growth of 1.6 GtCO2 is similar to the growth observed in 2010 following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009: 1.7 GtCO2 or 5.5% above 2009 levels.)
Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 are set to rebound close to their pre-COVID levels after an unprecedented drop in 2020. Emissions from coal and gas use are set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020, but emissions from oil use remain below 2019 levels.
The record decrease in 2020 emissions was 1.9 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) [-5.4%], from 36.7 GtCO2 in 2019 to 34.8 GtCO2 in 2020. Emissions are projected to grow 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) in 2021, to 36.4 GtCO2. Global emissions in 2021 remain about 0.8% below their level in 2019. The 2021 growth of 1.6 GtCO2 is similar to the growth observed in 2010 following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 (1.7 GtCO2; 5.5% above 2009 levels).
Annual global CO2 emissions
Annual Global CO2 Emissions
(2011 - 2021)*
2021 Global Carbon Budget (November 2021)
1 Gigatonne (Gt) = 1 billion tonnes
|
Fossil |
Land Use Change (Gt) |
Total* (Gt) |
2021 | 36.4* | ||
2020 | 34.8 | 3.2 | 38.0 |
2019 | 36.7 | 3.8 | 40.5 |
2018 | 36.6 | 3.9 | 40.5 |
2017 | 35.9 | 3.7 | 39.6 |
2016 | 35.5 | 3.7 | 39.2 |
2015 | 35.5 | 4.8 | 40.3 |
2014 | 35.5 | 4.6 | 40.1 |
2013 | 35.3 |
4.3 | 39.6 |
2012 | 35.0 | 4.7 | 39.7 |
2011 | 34.5 | 4.8 | 39.3 |
Source data from Global Carbon Project 2021 (via ICOS):
data supplement + global data (.xlsx) + national emissions (.xlsx)
*NOTES: (1) Values for GtCO2 in the above table were calculated by CO2.Earth by multiplying carbon emissions in the linked Excel data file by 3.664, and by adding emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change to determine total emissions
(2) Fossil fuel emissions exclude sinks from cement carbonation
(3) Global fossil fuel emissions for 2021 are projected
Global carbon budget 2021
The data below summarize all human-caused sources of CO2 emissions and global sinks (where the CO2 goes). Numbers present the yearly average for one decade (2011 to 2020). Data were published November 5, 2021, in Global Carbon Budget 2021 by the Global Carbon Project.
Global CO2 emissions from human activity
Most human-caused emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere are from burning fossil fuels that had long been stored in the crust of the Earth. A small part of the fossil fuel total is from new cement usage.
89% 34.8 GtCO2/yr
Fossil fuel emissions |
|
11% 4.1 GtCO2/yr
Emissions from land use change(mostly deforestation) |
Where the CO2 emissions go
From 2011 to 2020, about 55% of global emissions were absorbed by the terrestrial biosphere and oceans. The remainder were added to the CO2 which is accumulating in the atmosphere. This accumulation has been observed as continued increases in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
48% 18.6 GtCO2/yr Atmosphere |
|
29% 11.2 GtCO2/yr Vegetegation & Soils(terrestrial biosphere) |
|
26% 10.2 GtCO2/yr Oceans(terrestrial biosphere) |
Balancing the Budget
The global carbon budget numbers above are the best available scientific determinations at the time they were reported. Scientists also report an imbalance of 3% (-1.0 GtCO2/yr) between the estimates for global sources and sinks. See the data description paper, Global Carbon Budget 2021, by Friedlingstein et al for information about the data reporting methods and uncertainties.
3% -1.0 GtCO2/yr Imbalance(all sinks vs. all sources) |
About the Global Carbon ProjectThe Global Carbon Project and its partners provide annual scientific assessments of CO2 emissions from human activities and their redistribution in the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate. The assessments support the understanding of the global carbon cycle, development of responses to the climate crisis and project climate changes ahead. Assessments and data from the GCP quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget: fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production); land-use change (mainly deforestation); ocean sinks, terrestrial sinks and atmospheric accumulation. These assessments also provide the best-available quantification of the imbalance between global emissions from human sources and changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere.
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